Despite millions in global funding, Somalia’s most vulnerable communities say climate finance is failing to reach them.
Across Somalia, climate change is no longer a distant threat. It is a constant reality reshaping livelihoods, ecosystems and the economy. Despite contributing just 0.019 percent of global greenhouse gas emissions, far less than major emitters like China, which accounts for about 31%, Somalia is among the countries most vulnerable to climate shocks. Nearly half of Somali households report experiencing climate shocks each year, according to the World Bank’s Somalia Climate and Development Report (2026), recently launched with the Ministry of Environment and Climate Change.
The scale of the crisis is severe. The 2016–2017 drought alone caused an estimated $3.25 billion in damages, including up to $1.7 billion in livestock losses. Floods in 2023 affected 2.48 million people, displaced 1.2 million, and destroyed critical infrastructure, including health facilities.
These shocks are not only humanitarian; they are deeply economic. About 65 percent of the population depends on agriculture and livestock, while the livestock sector accounts for roughly 75 percent of GDP and over 90 percent of exports. Climate shocks therefore translate directly into national economic losses, with projections suggesting Somalia could see GDP decline by up to 13 percent by 2050–2060 under severe scenarios.
Field-level data reflects these trends. According to the Institute of Climate and Environment at SIMAD University, rainfall deficits in some regions have dropped to less than 10 millimeters across large parts of agropastoral areas, with crop failure rates reaching up to 85% and more than 130 water boreholes drying up. These conditions are accelerating land degradation and placing additional pressure on fragile livelihoods.
Environmental degradation is compounding these impacts. Prolonged drought, deforestation and unsustainable land use are weakening vegetation cover, contributing to biodiversity loss and increasing exposure to erosion and desertification. In central Somalia, these pressures are driving the expansion of sand dunes that are swallowing villages, grazing land and coastal areas. Communities in parts of Mudug have already been displaced as productive rangelands turn into barren landscapes.
Climate finance is meant to address these challenges. Global mechanisms such as the Global Environment Facility and the Green Climate Fund are designed to support countries like Somalia in restoring ecosystems, protecting biodiversity and strengthening resilience.
And funding does exist.
Somalia is part of climate finance programmes worth tens of millions of dollars, including around $100 million in Green Climate Fund investments and additional support through Global Environment Facility projects. Yet this remains limited compared to global climate finance, which exceeds $19.3 billion under the Green Climate Fund alone, and far below Somalia’s needs.
According to Somalia’s Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC 3.0), the country requires at least $6.3 billion in climate adaptation investment, while total climate finance needs for both adaptation and mitigation are projected to reach approximately $11.5 billion by 2035.
The gap between need and funding is clear, but the challenge goes beyond scale.
Much of the available climate finance is channelled through complex international systems that require strong institutions, technical capacity and lengthy approval processes. For fragile states like Somalia, these requirements often act as barriers. Funding is slow, fragmented and delivered through intermediaries, limiting direct access for local actors.
Dr. Mohamed Ibrahim Nor, a climate finance researcher and former Minister for Rural Development and Resilience in Southwest State of Somalia, notes that funding reaching Somalia is often not aligned with local realities. His research highlights a persistent gap between the scale of the crisis and the level of investment reaching vulnerable communities.
Across Africa, this challenge is widespread. Despite facing some of the most severe climate risks globally, the continent receives only a small share of climate finance, much of it in the form of loans rather than grants, increasing financial pressure on vulnerable countries.
For communities on the ground, the gap is immediate.
“We hear about climate finance coming into Somalia, but in the areas most affected, people are still struggling on their own,” said Abdulqadir Sheikh, Deputy Minister of Education in Galmudug State and originally from Dhinowda. “Entire villages are being affected by environmental changes, from drought to sand encroachment, yet there is little visible support. If this funding is meant to reach vulnerable communities, we have to ask why people are not seeing its impact.”
In regions like Mudug, where sand dunes are advancing across villages, grazing land and coastal areas, this disconnect is particularly visible. While climate finance mechanisms are designed to support land restoration and ecosystem protection, affected communities say little of that support is reaching them.
This reflects a broader structural issue. Climate finance is often designed at global and national levels, with limited attention to local delivery. Projects may be technically sound, but they are often too slow, too centralized, or disconnected from the realities on the ground, where communities face overlapping crises including drought, flooding, land degradation and biodiversity loss.
Government officials say efforts are underway to address these gaps.
Liban Obsiye, Executive Director of the Somali National Climate Fund, said Somalia is working to strengthen its climate finance system.
“We are building a more coordinated climate finance architecture to better mobilize resources and ensure funding can be accessed, managed and delivered effectively for the benefit of affected communities,” he said.
He added that reforms focus on strengthening institutions, improving public financial management and developing tools such as drought insurance to support vulnerable populations.
However, he acknowledged the scale of the challenge.
“Recurrent climate shocks force governments like ours to make difficult fiscal choices between responding to emergencies and investing in long-term development,” Obsiye said. “While we are working to strengthen domestic resource mobilization and reduce dependency on external support, the realities remain complex.”
Addressing this gap will require more than increasing funding. It will require rethinking how climate finance is structured, making it more accessible, flexible and locally driven.
For Somalia, the stakes are high. Climate change is already reshaping livelihoods, driving displacement and weakening the economy. Without climate finance that is both scaled up and effectively delivered, efforts to restore ecosystems, protect biodiversity and sustain livelihoods will continue to fall short.
Climate change is already shaping Somalia’s present. Whether climate finance can help shape a more resilient future will depend on whether it can finally reach those living on the frontlines.