Climate-change

Along Somalia’s central coastline in the Mudug region, the wind no longer carries only the scent of the sea. It carries sand. Every season, stronger winds push dunes further inland, slowly swallowing grasslands, burying traditional water wells, blocking transport routes and engulfing homes. Across the region, communities that once depended on livestock and fishing are watching their land change in ways they have never seen before, with many households already displaced or at risk of displacement.

For the families who once lived there, the climate crisis is not an international debate. It is something they can see every morning when they open their doors and find the sand closer than it was the night before, leaving many with no choice but to relocate and become climate displaced.

A village rebuilt after disaster, now disappearing again!

One of the clearest examples of this crisis is Kulub, a village along the central coast of Mudug.

The Kulub that exists today was itself created after an earlier environmental disaster. In December 2004, the Indian Ocean tsunami struck parts of Somalia’s coastline between Garacad in Mudug and Xaafuun in Bari. At least 114 people were reported dead, and homes, wells, fishing boats and shelters were destroyed across coastal communities. About 18,000 households were estimated to have been directly affected and displaced, with fishing villages among the hardest hit.

The original Kulub settlement along the coast was damaged by that tsunami. After the disaster, humanitarian agencies helped residents relocate slightly inland. The current village was established around 2007 as families tried to rebuild their lives.

For a time, the village recovered. Pastoralists grazed livestock on nearby rangelands, fishermen continued working along the coast, and children returned to school.

But less than two decades later, the rebuilt village is once again disappearing.

Over the past several years, strong coastal winds have pushed massive sand dunes toward Kulub.

Today, much of the village lies under sand. Nearly every house is partly or completely buried, with doors sealed shut and some structures almost gone. Many residents have removed the roofs of their homes to salvage materials before leaving, a sign that they no longer expect to return.

“When we rebuilt this village, we believed we had escaped disaster,” said Hassan Abdi, one of more than 150 families displaced from Kulub village who was forced to relocate with his family. “But the sand kept coming every year. First the grassland disappeared, then the roads, and now the houses are gone.”

The village primary school once had about 130 students, but only around 20 children still attend classes. Several classrooms are unusable because sand fills them overnight. The Maternal and Child Health center that once served the community has also shut down after the building became partially buried.

Most residents have already left. Some relocated to nearby towns while others moved inland searching for grazing land, as it becomes increasingly clear that the village may be lost for good.

But Kulub is not the only place facing this threat. Across the Mudug region, several other communities are experiencing the same environmental pressure. Officials from Puntland’s Ministry of Environment estimated that around 80% of Kulub’s residents had already been displaced, while displacement in neighboring villages ranged between 30 and 40%, with some communities forced to relocate more than once.

A crisis spreading across Mudug

Just Thirty kilometers away, the village of Dhinowda is already facing the same fate as Kulub. Large dunes have surrounded and overtaken homes, with much of the settlement now buried under sand. Residents say environmental and climate-induced displacement is already underway, and the village could soon disappear entirely.

Further inland, communities such as Budbud are also being heavily affected. Although not directly on the coast, shifting sand and declining vegetation are already covering grazing lands that pastoralist families depend on, forcing some to move and others to fear what comes next.

Other settlements, including Ceelhuur and Ceeldhanaane, are also experiencing growing pressure. In these areas, sand dunes are steadily advancing across pastureland that once supported large herds of goats, sheep and camels, putting livelihoods at risk.

Environmental analysts say this pattern shows the crisis is no longer limited to a single village but is spreading across the region, driving climate-induced displacement and reshaping human mobility across Somalia’s central coast.

“This is no longer an isolated problem, it is a regional environmental crisis that needs urgent attention,” said Abdirabi Mohamed, an environmental activist from the region. “Without serious investment in land restoration, vegetation recovery, and dune control, more communities will be lost. What is happening in Mudug should be a wake-up call.” He added.

Ports on the frontline of the advancing dunes

Garacad Port, inaugurated in October 2022 with an initial $120 million investment from Somali communities—expected to reach around $300 million upon completion— was built on hopes of transforming regional trade and opening new routes for livestock exports. Further south, Hobyo Port is set to be developed under a late 2024 agreement with Turkey’s Metag Holding, with an initial $70 million phase aimed at connecting Somalia to Ethiopia and easing pressure on existing ports.

Together, the two projects represent growing local ambition and a vision for economic transformation. But both are now facing environmental pressure, as advancing sand dunes begin to threaten surrounding villages and access routes.

“We are investing hundreds of millions into ports and trade corridors, but we are not investing enough in protecting the land itself,” said an environmental economist based in Mogadishu. “If we do not put the same level of effort and funding into tackling sand encroachment and land degradation, these investments will be at risk. What is worrying is that this crisis is still receiving limited attention, yet it is already affecting communities and could eventually undermine major economic projects.”

For many residents, the ports still represent opportunity and self-reliance, but there is growing concern that without urgent action to control the shifting sands, these investments could face the same environmental risks already affecting nearby communities.

Fishing communities cut off from the sea

The advancing sand is also affecting fishing communities along the coast. As dunes spread toward the shoreline, traditional access paths used by fishermen are becoming blocked, making it harder to reach the sea, forcing some coastal families to consider relocating in search of alternative livelihoods.

In some areas, roads are now covered by sand, turning once simple routes into barriers for transporting equipment and launching boats.

Ali Sabrie, an environmentalist and diaspora investor in the fishing sector in Hobyo, says the challenge is growing. “Fishing is becoming more difficult,” he added. “Sand is blocking roads and forming dunes in many areas, making access to the coast harder.”

He added that after repeated droughts wiped out livestock, there have been discussions about encouraging families to shift into fishing. “But fishing is facing its own environmental challenges,” he said. “People risk moving from one crisis to another, People risk moving from one crisis to another, leaving some families with little choice but to migrate or relocate in search of sustainable livelihoods, which makes solutions more difficult.”

Sabrie called for greater attention and support. “We need more focus on this issue and support from international climate and environmental funds,” he said.

The dunes are also covering landing sites and affecting ecosystems that support small-scale fisheries, putting additional pressure on coastal livelihoods and increasing the likelihood of climate-induced displacement as families lose both their homes and their means of survival.

Rangelands turning into desert

The sand is also spreading across the grazing lands that pastoralist families depend on. In many places around Kulub and Dhinowda, dunes are pushing into pasture areas where livestock once grazed freely.

One striking image captured near the village shows cows feeding on a shrinking patch of grass while a massive sand dune rises behind them, slowly advancing toward the grazing land.

“For us, the land is life,” said Amina Ali, a pastoralist from Dhinowda. “After our villages were destroyed, our children’s education disrupted, and our wells and homes buried, the sand is now taking the grazing land too, even far from the coast.”

“The drought weakened us, and now the sand is taking what is left. We are even thinking of leaving the entire region like others before who displaced.” Amina said.

As grazing land disappears beneath the advancing sand and prolonged drought continues to reduce water availability, pastoralist families are increasingly forced to compete for the remaining pasture and water sources. Community leaders warn that shrinking natural resources are not only driving displacement but also increasing the risk of local conflicts between communities competing for access to grazing land, wells and other essential resources.

Climate change amplifying the crisis

Experts say climate change is accelerating these environmental changes and driving the spread of sand dunes across central Somalia.

Rising temperatures, prolonged droughts and erratic rainfall are weakening vegetation that once held the soil in place. As plant cover disappears, the land becomes exposed, allowing wind to carry sand inland and gradually reshape entire landscapes.

As a Least Developed Country, Somalia contributes just 0.019 percent of global emissions, yet it is among the most climate-vulnerable countries. The country experienced five consecutive failed rainy seasons between 2020 and 2023, killing millions of livestock and severely damaging livelihoods.

According to the United Nations Somalia Common Country Analysis (2020), forest cover declined from 39 million hectares (62 percent of land area) in 1980 to just 6.4 million hectares (10.3 percent) in 2014. The report also estimates that 8.2 million trees were cut for charcoal between 2011 and 2017, accelerating land degradation and desertification, further exposing communities to environmental shocks and displacement.

Mr. Amin Jamal, a researcher focusing on climate and environmental change in Somalia, says these patterns are already reshaping how people live and where they are able to remain. “We are seeing a cycle of recurring droughts, intensified flooding and extreme weather events that are crippling livelihoods, agriculture is declining, infrastructure is being damaged, and communities are struggling to cope. When vegetation disappears, the land loses its protection, and that is when problems like sand movement and land degradation begin to expand, placing more communities at risk of displacement,” he said.

He warned that without stronger investment in climate adaptation and land restoration, the impacts will continue to deepen, placing more communities at risk of climate-induced displacement and leaving families to cope largely on their own.

Climate finance gap

Despite facing some of the world’s most severe climate impacts, Somalia continues to struggle to access the funding needed to adapt.

International climate finance systems are meant to support vulnerable countries, but across Africa they have fallen short in both scale and fairness. Much of the funding comes as loans rather than grants, while complex requirements and limited capacity make access difficult for countries like Somalia.

Dr. Mohamed Ibrahim, a climate finance researcher, notes that funding remains far below what is needed and is often not aligned with local realities, leaving a gap between the scale of the crisis and support reaching vulnerable communities.

“Dhinowda can still be saved if action is taken,” said Abdulqadir Sheikh, originally from the area and now based in Mogadishu. “We have raised this issue for years, but no meaningful action has followed. These sand dunes stretch for hundreds of kilometers and are beyond what local communities can manage. We need climate finance to address this crisis.”

Without more accessible, grant-based and locally driven financing, regions like Mudug will continue to face growing environmental pressure, with communities left to cope largely on their own.

Slow displacement and a warning from Somalia’s central coast

As sand spreads across villages and grazing land disappears, many families have already begun to move. Some relocate to nearby towns, while others travel further inland in search of pasture. In some cases, entire communities are quietly abandoned. Environmental researchers say this form of slow displacement is becoming increasingly common in Somalia, and more particularly in Mudug coastal villages.

Kulub and Dhinowda are among the most visible examples, but they reflect a broader environmental shift unfolding across the Mudug region. Without urgent investment in land restoration, environmental protection and climate adaptation, experts warn that more communities could face the same fate.

For those who once called Kulub home, the loss is deeply personal.

“We rebuilt our lives once after the tsunami, and now we are losing our village again.” said Habiba, who grew up in Kulub. She fears that her childhood memories, the places where she and her siblings once played, will disappear forever.